Is it really February? The Toronto and area residential resale market certainly did not behave as if it was. Actually, it was more reminiscent of a crazy spring market, and even then, it outdistanced most spring markets that we have recently experienced. In February 2021, 10,970 properties were reported sold in the greater Toronto area. To put that number into perspective, no month in 2019 came close to 10,970 sales. The strongest month for sales in 2019 was May at only 9,951 reported sales, and that was an excellent month! By comparison to February 2020, also a strong month at 7,193 sales, February 2020’s performance was 52.5 percent stronger.

It will surprise no one with such robust sales activity that prices were also sharply on the rise in February. In fact, the average sale price for the greater Toronto area shattered the $1 Million threshold for the first time, finishing the month at $1,045,488, almost 15 percent higher than the average sale price of $910,142 achieved last year. It is interesting to note that the average sale price for the City of Toronto came in lower at $995,201. That was due to the 2,167 condominium apartment sales that were recorded. These lower price point properties acted as a drag on the City of Toronto average sale prices.

Detached and semi-detached property sales in the City of Toronto were extremely active and at a strong prices. Expect to pay almost $1.7 Million for a detached property and $1.325 Million for a semi-detached home – if you can find one. The supply of detached and semi-detached properties in Toronto is at an all-time low. In February, 915 detached properties were reported sold. By March, the inventory of detached properties was down to 938 homes or only 1 month of supply. The supply of semi-detached properties has reached a critical state. In February, 295 properties sold in this category. By the beginning of March, only 181 semi-detached properties were on the market, only .6 months of supply – an unprecedented number.

Sales of every housing type, including condominiums, were strong. This was particularly true for higher-priced properties. In February, 597 properties having a sale price of $2 Million or more were reported sold. Comparisons to previous years are staggering. In 2020 only 266 properties in this price category were sold, and in 2019 a mere 193. Sales in February 2021 were a shocking 125 percent higher than sales at this price point in 2020.

Condominium apartment sales were also very strong in February, posting results 63.2 percent higher than last year. While sales increased, the average sale price continued to decline by 6.4 percent in Toronto but rising by 5.4 percent in the 905 region. It is the decline that is relevant in that 70 percent of all condominium apartment sales are in the City of Toronto. The decline in average sale price in the City’s core, where most sales are recorded, was even lower, down by 10 percent compared to last year.

February’s resale market was like no other we have experienced. Going forward we can anticipate more of this, at least until March and into April, however sustaining 15 percent price increases (higher in some districts) will be difficult. Even with historically low mortgage interest rates, affordability will become (is?) a concern. On the positive side, February saw new inventory increase by over 40 percent compared to last year. If the pace of new listings coming to market continues, more consumer choice should see prices begin to moderate. But currently, with only 1.5 months of inventory, price moderation is still some months away.

Once again, the Toronto and area resale market delivered eye-popping results. As compared to last January sales were up by over 52 percent and the average sale price increased by almost 16 percent. In absolute numbers January produced an unprecedented 6,928 sales – there were only 4,546 last year – and the average sale price came in at $967,885 for all properties sold throughout the greater Toronto area. It was only $838,000 last year.

But the market was not homogenous. Within the City of Toronto, sales were dominated by condominium apartments. Over 55 percent (1,703 apartments) of all reported sales were condominiums. That was a shocking 85 percent increase compared to the number of condominium apartments sold last year. In the last two months, condominium apartment sales in the City of Toronto have come roaring back erasing the mid-pandemic declines they had experienced.

That was only part of the story. While sales were soaring, average sale prices continued to decline. By month-end, condominium apartment prices in Toronto’s 416 region had declined by 8 percent. The situation was more extreme in Toronto’s central core. Almost 70 percent of all Toronto condominium apartment sales are located in Toronto’s central districts, primarily downtown. Last year the average sale price for condominiums in Toronto’s central districts was $758,000. In January, the identical apartments were selling for $661,000, 13 percent less. With such steep price reductions, it is not surprising that buyers are flocking to the condominium apartment market.

The other market story is Toronto’s suburbs, the 905 region. Not only are more sales taking place in the region, but at rapidly rising prices. In January the average sale price in the 905 region was more than 10 percent higher than the average sale price in the City of Toronto ($866,331). Halton (Burlington, Halton Hills, Milton, and Oakville) and York Region (Aurora, East Gwillimbury, Georgina, King, Markham, Newmarket, Richmond Hill, Vaughan, and Whitchurch-Stouffville) both produced average sale prices for all properties reported sold of more than $1,160,000.

Higher priced properties throughout the greater Toronto area sold at a pace not seen before for January. In January 331 properties were reported sold having a sale price of $2 million or more. That amounts to a shocking 155 percent increase compared to the 130 properties that sold in this category in 2020, and only 76 in 2019. This is an amazing accomplishment, and it demonstrates that robust sales of properties in the greater Toronto area are taking place in all price categories.

Aside from the issue of sustainability, the perennial concern, as we move into February, inventory levels remain a problem. At the end of January, there were only 7,396 properties available to buyers, almost 5 percent fewer than last year. The bulk of those listings (44 percent) are condominium apartments. There simply aren’t enough ground level, freehold properties to meet demand. It is the rarest of occurrences when new listing offerings aren’t greeted by multiple offers – many multiple offers.

Looking forward, February will be an even stronger month than January. Early February data indicates that the resale market will exceed last February’s results by at least 50 percent and that the average sale price, both in the City of Toronto and the surrounding 905 region, is on an upward trajectory. Cheap money – five year mortgage interest rates at less than 2 percent – government stimulus, and the consumers’ frantic psychological need to acquire real estate, preferable low rise, with outdoor space, will continue to drive this frenzied market for the foreseeable future.

We have run out of superlatives to describe the greater Toronto residential resale marketplace. Records have been broken consistently for the last few months, and September was no exception. Two records were shattered in September: most sales ever recorded for the month, and the highest average sale price for all properties reported sold.

In September 11,083 residential resale properties were reported sold. This is more properties reported sold than in any previous September. By comparison, last September 7,791 properties were reported sold. This year’s sales were 42.3 percent higher than reported sales in 2019. September’s sales brought the year-to-date total to 68,793, 1 percent higher than the number of reported sales at the same period last year. This means that in the last four months the market has made up for the momentum lost during the implementation of the lockdowns and the provincial emergency measures designed to contain the spread of the Coronavirus in March.

The second record was the average sale price for all properties sold.  In September it came in at $960,772. The previous record was set in August at $951,536, and the record before that was set in July at $943,609. September marks the fourth consecutive month in which a new average sale price record has been set. It is almost unfathomable that in April the average sale price was only $820,222. Since April it has increased by 17 percent.

It should be noted that in the city of Toronto the average sale price came in at $1,022,051. This is an astounding number when it is remembered that of the 3,551 recorded sales in the city of Toronto, 1,549, or 44 percent, were condominium apartments. During the pandemic condominium apartments have been out of favour. Buyers have sought out ground level properties that offer outdoor space. In September the average sale price for all condominium apartments sold only rose by 7 percent compared to the same month last year. Detached home prices increased by 28 percent and semi-detached home prices by almost 50 percent (in the city of Toronto).

For the third consecutive month more listings came to market compared to the same month last year. In September 20,420 new properties came to market, a 31 percent increase compared to the 15,616 that came to market last September. Due to the incredible absorption rate in September (11,083 sales), at month end there were 18,167 properties available to buyers, a mere 5 percent increase compared to the 17,254 available last year. In order to experience a balanced market, the marketplace would require an available inventory of at least 25,000 active listings. It is not surprising, given the absorption rate, that throughout the greater Toronto area all properties (on average) sold in just 16 days.  

During the pandemic there has been an explosion of higher priced property sales. In September 461 properties having a sale price of $2 million or more were reported sold. This represents an 86 percent increase compared to the 248 properties reported sold in 2019. No doubt the need for space, coupled with historically low interest rates (5 year mortgage rates at less than 2 percent) have driven those that can afford it to larger more expensive properties.

September’s market data provides some empirical proof that buyers are looking for space and ground level properties far from the core of the city of Toronto. Although sales were strong in the city of Toronto – 3,555 sales which amounted to a 20 percent increase compared to the 2,987 properties reported sold in 2019 – that paled compared to what happened in Toronto’s 905 region.

Of the 11,083 reported sales in September, 7,528 of them were in the 905 region. Last September only 4,804 properties were reported sold in the region. Year-over-year this represents a 57 percent increase in the number of sales, substantially and dramatically higher than the city of Toronto. Also, in September, the average price rose by approximately 12 percent in the city of Toronto but by almost 17 percent in the 905 region with South Simcoe County, the region furthest north from Toronto, registering an average sale price increase of 20 percent compared to last year. At this rate average prices in the 905 region will not remain lower than prices in the city of Toronto for much longer. The average priced property in the 905 region, however, does buy more land, and more space compared to similarly priced properties in Toronto. It should be noted that some districts in the 905 region have also become pricey. In September the average price in Halton region was $1,087,859 and $1,066,380 in Peel, both higher than the average price for all properties sold in Toronto ($1,022,051).

Early data for October indicates that it will be as robust as September. Those buyers that have had not been directly and economically affected by the pandemic continue their quest to purchase properties that not only meet their needs but that can act as a sanctuary in these uncertain times. They do so while having access to mortgage financing at less than the rate of inflation.

Toronto and area realtors reported 10,775 sales in August. These sales represent a shocking 40.3 percent increase compared to the 7,682 sales reported last year, which was a very respectable August for reported sales. This dramatic increase was predominately driven by an increase in sales of detached and semi-detached properties.

In the City of Toronto detached property sales increased by 65.3 percent and semi-detached properties by an eye-popping 81.2 percent compared to last August. Condominium apartments, for reasons discussed in my July report, did not fare nearly as well, rising by only 9.2 percent.

The Toronto and area average sale price record has now been exceeded for three consecutive months. June’s average sale price of $931,302 exceeded the previous record of $920,000 achieved in April of 2017, the month during which the then provincial government legislated the foreign buyers tax. In July, the average sale price jumped to $943,666, another record. This August it moved closer to the magical $1 Million mark coming in at $951,4014, the new record for Toronto and area resales.

The $1 Million mark has been exceeded for some time in the City of Toronto. Notwithstanding the mix of less expensive condominium apartments, the average sale price for all property sales in Toronto came in at $1,012,506, an amazing 24 percent increase compared to only a year ago. No doubt this increase was driven by the 413 reported sales during the month having a sale price of $2 Million or more, most of which were located in the City of Toronto. The average sale price in the 905 region, by comparison, was only $906,440 for all property types sold in August.

It is not surprising that sales took place at the real estate equivalent of the speed of light. All 10,775 sales for the month took place in only 17 days (on average) after hitting the market. By comparison last year it took 25 days on the market for properties to sell, an improvement of 32 percent. For some property types and depending on location sales took place even faster.

For example detached properties in the City of Toronto sold in only 16 days and for 101 percent of their asking price. Semi-detached properties sold even faster, in only 10 days and for an incredible 108 percent of their asking prices.

In Toronto’s eastern districts the pace of sales was record-breaking. All semi-detached properties sold in only 8 days and for an amazing 112 percent of their asking prices. There was a glimmer of hope for frustrated buyers in August. For the first time since the pandemic, August saw a dramatically high number of new listings coming to market. Almost 18,500 new properties came available to buyers, 56.8 percent more than became available in August 2019. Last year only 11,789 properties came to market.

Due to the high absorption level in August (10,775 sales) at month end there were still only 16,662 properties on the market throughout the greater Toronto area, only 5 percent more than the 15,870 available last year. If new listings continue at August’s pace into September, they will have a profound impact, helping the market to move away from the extreme seller’s market we have been experiencing and ultimately having a moderating affect on average sale prices.

Early September data indicates that September 2020 may be another record-breaking month both as to the average sale price and the number of reported sales. Stay tuned!

July’s residential resale market performance was record breaking. Almost 11,100 properties were reported sold, a 28 percent increase compared to the 8,679 properties sold a month earlier. Compared to July 2019, sales improved by almost 30 percent. There were 8,555 residential properties reported sold last year. July’s numbers are the clearest indication as to the robustness and resilience of the Toronto marketplace, especially when fueled by record-low mortgage interest rates.

It is no surprise that average sale prices have also increased, also to record levels. In July the average sale price for all properties sold in the greater Toronto area came in at $943,710, surpassing June’s record-breaking average sale price of $931,221. By comparison, last July the average sale price was only $806,971. Notwithstanding the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, today’s average sale price is 17 percent higher than only a year ago.

In the City of Toronto, the average sale price is even higher. It came in at $1,017,320. This number is particularly impressive when it is remembered that it includes 1,689 condominium apartment sales out of a total of 3,577 properties reported sold.

It is also worth noting that the higher-end of the marketplace exploded in July. In July 452 properties having a sale price of $2 million or more were sold. By comparison, only 185 properties in this category were reported sold last year, an eye-popping increase of 144 percent. No doubt the resurgence of the equity markets has bolstered the confidence of purchasers of higher-priced properties.

The entire residential market has not reacted to the pandemic and its impact on the local economy equally. Condominium apartment sales were negatively impacted during the second quarter of 2020. The quarter saw the tightest economic restrictions and the resulting economic fallout. During the second quarter (ending June 30th), condominium apartment sales were down by over 50 percent, and new listings over the same period were down by almost 22 percent. Notwithstanding these very negative numbers, the average sale price increased by 5.1 percent to $619,707.

In July there was evidence that the condominium apartment market was making a recovery from its poor second quarter performance. In July sales modestly rose by 4.7 percent compared to last year. Sale prices were more robust, rising by almost 9 percent to $682,999 in the greater Toronto area. In the City of Toronto’s central core, the average sale price was a stunning $746,204.

The rental market was also negatively impacted by the pandemic in the second quarter. A combination of restrictions on showing condominium apartment units for rent and job losses across a multitude of economic sectors dampened demand for rental accommodation. As a result, condominium apartment rentals in the second quarter were down by 25 percent compared to the second quarter of 2019, where the number of available condominium apartments increased by 42 percent to 21,703. Not surprisingly, average rents have declined across the board from bachelor to three-bedroom apartments. Except for bachelor apartments, rents declined, on average, by 5.5 percent from a year ago. Bachelor apartment rents, understandably, declined by almost 10 percent. Increased choice has allowed tenants to negotiate rents downwards, a reversal of years of constantly rising rent levels.

Early August results indicate that the resale market will produce strong numbers once again, although not quite as robust as July. On a year over year basis sales will be approximately 10 percent higher than August of last year. It cannot be over emphasized that mortgage interest rates of less than 2 percent will continue to drive the Toronto and area resale market, even in the face of the negative economic impact of the pandemic. Those rates are not expected to rise for some time, perhaps as late as the end of 2021.

By any standards, the residential resale market’s recovery in June was nothing but phenomenal. The lockdown and emergency measures implemented by the Province in mid-March literally brought the market to a standstill. It stayed that way throughout April, but by early May, we could sense recovery. By May the industry, agents, buyers and sellers had adjusted to the rigid in-person showing protocols – masks, gloves, sanitizers, social distancing, and no-touch viewings. Also, by May, the pent up demand, already present before the pandemic, began to push against the restrictions imposed by Covid-19 and sales began to take place.

In June sales flourished. There were 8,701 reported sales in the greater Toronto area, only 1.4 percent fewer than the 8,826 sales reported last year. That is a 19 percent increase compared to the 2,961 sales achieved in April, and an 89 percent increase compared to the 4,601 reported sales in May. These numbers represent an unprecedented recovery. Most economists had predicted a much more protracted recovery, a recovery resembling the economic recovery following the collapse of the equities market in 2008.

Unlike sales, which declined in March and then recovered in June, average sales prices did not noticeably decline during this period. In fact, they continued to strengthen, approaching record levels. In June the average sale price for all properties sold in the greater Toronto area come in at an eye-popping $930,869, 12 percent higher than last year’s average sale price of $831,882. In the City of Toronto, the average sale price came in at $1,022,138. Not quite a record but approaching one, and well above Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s $1 Million threshold for high ratio loans. Housing in the City of Toronto experienced increases in all housing types – detached (14.3 percent), semi-detached (an amazing 22 percent), and condominium apartments (5.6 percent) compared to the same month last year.

These increases were stimulated by the resurgence of the high-end market, which was slower in its recovery than lower price-point properties. In June 365 properties with a sale price of $2 Million or more were reported sold. This represents a 42 percent increase compared to the 257 reported sold in this price category last year. It is worth noting that at the market’s lowest point in April, only 67 properties were reported sold in this category. No doubt with the recovery of equity markets over this period, confidence at the higher price points has returned.

Semi-detached properties throughout the City of Toronto were the most sought-after housing type. They were literally flying off the shelf. The average sale price for semi-detached properties came in at a record $1,287,832. Not only was the average sale price a record, but all semi-detached properties sold, in another record, in only 9 days. Not only did they sell in 9 days, but they sold for 106 percent of the asking price. In Toronto’s eastern districts, all semi-detached properties sold, in a record 6 days, for 110 percent of their asking price. In the trading areas closest to Toronto’s central core (Riverdale, Leslieville, the Beaches) in 5 days and for more than 110 percent of asking price. These are extraordinary numbers and an unprecedented market performance.

The one area of continuing concern is supply, although there was some marginal improvement in June. In June 16,153 new properties came to market. A slight increase compared to the 15,824 that came to market last year. Unfortunately, at month-end, there were only 14,001 properties available for buyers throughout the greater Toronto area, almost 30 percent fewer than the 19,655 that were available last year.

Early indications point to an equally strong July. The factors that drove the market in June are still present and will not be going away – historically low-interest rates, pent up demand, and lack of supply which is creating a “don’t want to miss out” mentality amongst buyers.

REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT MARCH 2020: TORONTO REGION

Until the Ontario Provincial Government declared a state of emergency, the Toronto and area residential resale market was on course to produce one of the strongest, most robust markets on record, including the establishment of a record-breaking monthly average sale price. All that changed around the middle of the month as people began following provincial health authorities directives: stay home, maintain social distancing, no large gatherings, and of course, wash your hands frequently. When many of Ontario’s businesses were ordered closed, the real estate market didn’t stop, but stalled dramatically.

Even with the collapse of the resale market in the second half of the month, March’s results were still substantially stronger than March 2019. This March 8,012 residential properties were reported sold by Toronto and area realtors, a 12.3 percent increase compared to the 7,132 sales reported last year. Similarly, the average sale price for March came in at $902,680, almost matching April 2017’s record of $920,000. By comparison last March the average sale price came in at $788,133, 14.5 percent less than March 2020. What makes these numbers even more remarkable, is that all the properties that were reported sold took only 13 days (on average) to go from listing to sale. 

What is so disappointing, particularly for buyers, is that March appeared to be the first month in sometime when more much needed listings would come to market. Even with the abrupt hault in the market after March 15th, 14,424 properties came to market, a 3 percent increase compared to the 14,004 that came to market last year. In the second half of the month listings were being cancelled, suspended or moved from the multiple listing service to exclusive listings. By the end of the month, buyers were reluctant to visit properties as open houses became outlawed and real estate brokerages established rigid showing protocols. In order to protect the health and safety of its clients, agents, staff and the greater community, Chestnut Park put into place rigid showing restrictions, only allowing the showing of properties in emergency or exceptional circumstances.

But at the end of the day, March can be differentiated as the pre-COVID-19 and the post-COVID-19 markets. Effectively the date that demarcates these two markets is March 15. Here is what happened in those two markets. 

1. During the first 15 days of March 4,643 properties were reported sold. This represented an eye-popping 58 percent increase compared to the number of sales recorded for the same period last March. 
2. In the last half of the month 3,369 property sales were reported. This is a decrease of 15.9 percent compared to the same period last year. No doubt this is the most dramatic market change in the history of the Toronto and area resale market. 
3. The average sale price for the entire month of March came in at $902,680. During the second half of the month the average sale price for all properties reported sold was only $862,563. During the first half of the month the average sale price was well over $1,000,000. 
4. Even with the almost instantaneous change in market conditions after March 15, the average sale price for the city of Toronto still came in at $987,787, and that number included the reported sale of 1,402 condominium apartments which represented more than 50 percent of all reported sales in Toronto.

PREPARED BY: 

CHESTNUT PARK REAL ESTATE LIMITED, BROKERAGE | CHESTNUTPARK.COM