A number of commentators have focused on April’s negative variances compared to market results achieved in April 2023. Specifically, the fact that sales declined by 5 percent from the 7,114 residential properties that traded hands this year compared to the 7,487 properties reported sold last April.

In addition, heavy emphasis was placed on the number of new listings that came to market and the number of active properties available to buyers at the end of the month. Last year, 11,509 new properties came to market. This April, 16,941 came to market, an increase of more than 47 percent. By month end, there were 18,088 homes available to buyers, almost 75 percent more than the 10,373 properties available last April.

Year-over-year, lower sales and a dramatic increase in supply may give the appearance of a declining market, but a deeper dive into April’s data tells a very different story.

By April of 2023, the Toronto and Region resale market was ascending rapidly. It was ascending so rapidly that in June and July the Bank of Canada, apprehensive as to the strong real estate market’s impact on rising inflation, increased its benchmark rate to 5 percent (where it currently stands). By August, the resale market was in steep descent. That descent has only been reversed during the first four months of 2024. Often, year-over-year comparisons belie and sometimes distort market reality.

Market reality is more accurately reflected by the speed of sales and their sale price as compared to asking prices. In April, all properties reported sold (including condominium apartments), on average, sold at 102 percent of their asking price and in only 19 days. If condominium apartment sales are extracted from the overall numbers, the results are startlingly positive.

In April, all the detached properties that sold in the City of Toronto “flew off the shelf” in only 15 days and at 103 percent of their asking prices. The average sale price for all detached properties in the City of Toronto came in at $1,822,244. More significantly, all detached properties reported sold in Toronto Central, which encompasses some of Toronto’s most expensive neighborhoods, sold in only 18 days and for 100 percent of their asking price. The average sale price for detached property sales in Toronto’s central districts came in at an eye-popping $2,627,700.

Activity in the semi-detached sector was even more robust. All semi-detached properties that became available in the City of Toronto sold for 108 percent of their asking price, and amazingly, in only 12 days. In the 905 Region, activity for semi-detached properties was just as brisk. All sales took place in only 13 days and at 106 percent of asking prices. Semi-detached properties in Toronto’s eastern districts sold at pandemic-level speed. All semi-detached properties sold in only 10 days and at 112 percent of their asking prices. The average sale price for semi-detached homes in April was substantially higher in the City of Toronto than in the 905 Region. The average sale price in the 905 came in at $1,139,929. Furthermore. the average sale price for semi-detached homes in the City of Toronto was almost 20 percent higher, coming in at $1,365,061.

Condominium apartments, the largest segment of available properties, performed poorly in April, acting as a drag on the overall resale market. All condominium apartments that sold in April did so in 26 days, and at only 99 percent of their asking price, a dramatic divergence from detached and semi-detached activity. The average sale price for all condominium apartments sold came in at $728,067. Sales were off by 9.5 percent compared to last April.

Even more concerning is the number of new listings that came to market. In April, 5,542 new condominium apartments came to the market – almost 33 percent of all new inventory. By month end, 7,015 condominium apartments were available to buyers, almost 40 percent of total available inventory.

There are many factors responsible for the disconnect between the condominium apartment market and the ground level market of detached and semi-detached homes. No doubt the increasing inventory represents investor units purchased before or during the pandemic market. With rising financing costs, these units are financially non-performing, and investors are selling to reduce losses. In addition, many thousands of unquantifiable assignment sales are also on the market, competing with listed condominium apartments, resulting in a glut of available inventory.

At first blush, one would conclude that this would be a market opportunity for buyers. Unfortunately, condominium apartments are primarily the homes of choice for first time buyers. Most available apartments are spatially small. Since 2017, all condominium apartments built in Toronto average only 659 square feet. Two decades earlier, they averaged 1,010, still relatively small but quite livable. The same size reduction in units is true for all condominium apartments built in the greater Toronto Region.

These small condominium apartments remain beyond the economic reach of most first-time buyers, many being immigrants without local family support. In Toronto’s central districts, where 63 percent of the City of Toronto’s sales take place, and 41 percent of all condominium apartment sales in the greater Toronto area took place, the average sale price in April was a lofty $829,501. Given today’s mortgage financing costs, a buyer would need a household income of approximately $175,000 to purchase the average price condominium apartment in central Toronto. Canada Mortgage and Housing reports that the average household income in central Toronto is $109,599.

Clearly, the Toronto and Region marketplace is fractured. The ground-level resale market is strong with average sales prices remaining strong, with detached and semi- detached properties selling quickly and for strong sale prices. The rapidity with which ground-level properties sell speaks to the market’s incredible demand, driven by years of population growth due primarily to immigration.

Demand for condominium apartments appears to have waned, primarily due to space constraints as a result of poor, but economically lucrative (for developers), design developments. In addition, for most first-time buyers, even if they were happy to accept these small condominium apartments, at their current price point, they remain unaffordable.

Looking forward, we can expect similar market results in May. The average sale price will continue to hover around $1,150,000, with sales expected to come in at the 7,000 plus range. To some extent the market is in a limbo state, hanging on every statement uttered by the Bank of Canada, waiting for the much-anticipated rate cut. In June? July?

This first month of 2024 unfolded as anticipated. As 2023 came to an end, an air of optimism began to spread through the Toronto and Region residential resale market. This optimism was driven by the belief that rate hikes by the Bank of Canada were at an end and rate relief was on its way. This was confirmed in January when the Bank met and held its benchmark rate at 5 percent, but more importantly, and for the first time, indicated that it was already planning for rate cuts - it was just a question of when.

This optimism was reflected in January's resale data. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board reported 4,223 sales for the month. Although not a stellar month, January's sales were 37 percent higher than the 3,083 properties reported sold last year, and 30 percent higher than the 3,435 reported sold in December. The first month-over- month increase since August of 2023.

The average sale price was practically unchanged year- over-year. Last January, the average sale price came in at $1,036,925. This January, it was $1,026,703, a marginal 1 percent decline. The small decline in the average sale price was primarily driven by declining condominium apartment prices in the 905 Region. Year-over-year, they declined by almost 3 percent. Condominium apartment prices in the City of Toronto remained unchanged comingin at $709,419.  The average price for condominium apartments in the 905 Region was $628,375 in January.

A noticeable difference between January 2023 and January 2024 was the length of time properties took to sell. Last year, all properties (on average) sold in just 29 days. This year, that number jumped to 37 days, a substantial 28 percent increase. Even though more buyers purchased homes this January compared to January 2023, they did so deliberately. What is encouraging is that more buyers managed to overcome the affordability challenges that have been restricting the resale market.

Another positive development in the market was the change in availability - although not as dramatic as the change in average days on market. In January, 8,312 new properties came to market - no doubt many of these were relisted properties. Last year, only 7,836 came to market, 6 percent fewer than this year. At the end of January, there were 10,093 homes of all property types available to buyers, 8.5 percent more than the 9,300 available last year.

January's numbers point to improved sales numbers and, no doubt, increasing average sale prices as we move through the year. Buyers took advantage of lower available mortgage interest rates due to lender competition and will become even more active as the economy moves towards Bank of Canada rate cuts, now expected in June. Given the staggering population growth in the Toronto and Region resale marketplace, and the sizeable pent-up demand generated by affordability challenges, all signs point to a very strong resale market for 2024.

It will be interesting to observe what the impact of various legislative changes will have on the City of Toronto's luxury market. Starting in 2024, buyers of high-end real estate will be required to pay egregious land transfer taxes. Buyers of properties having a sale price of over $5 million will be expected to pay a tax of 5.5 percent of the purchase price, 6.5 percent for properties sold over $10 million up to $20 million and 7.5 percent for sales over $20 million. This tax is in addition to the provincial land transfer tax (approximately 2.5 percent of the sale price). A buyer of a $10 million home in the City of Toronto will be expected to pay an eye- popping land transfer tax of $652,950 ($236,475 provincial and $416,475 City of Toronto). In addition, the City of Toronto increased its vacant home tax to 3 percent of the assessed value of properties starting in 2024.

The combined effect of these taxes, in addition to a proposed municipal property tax increase of more than 10 percent, makes the City of Toronto's real estate residential market very expensive compared to other jurisdictions, even within Ontario. These politically motivated measures, though well intentioned, will have the opposite of their intended impact. Toronto is becoming less, not more, affordable.